New Year, Who's This?

A review of predictions for product management in the new year

Author

Jason Scherschligt
January 16, 2024

Ah, January — named for Janus, the Roman two-faced god, with one visage (usually depicted as a young man) looking forward and another (usually older, bearded) looking backward. Janus is the overseer and inspirer of transitions and duality, and as one year flips to another he straddles the past and the future. Janus shines in January. So do product people.

As the calendar turns to January 2024, many product writers and strategists have shared their opinions on what to expect in the year ahead. In this first Pollinator of 2024, we’ll take a look at some predictions and prognostications from some of the product community’s brightest lights. Some common themes: big things for artificial intelligence (AI), evolution of the role of product managers, and some uncertainty about product management vs. product marketing.

But before we look around the garden, we’ll share a few of our own observations.

1. AI will become a standard working tool to enable effective product management — but it won’t replace good product sense.

It is, I suppose, obvious to point out that artificial intelligence (AI) is disruptive technology with implications across cultures and economies. It reminds me of the explosion of smartphones 15 years ago or the rise of the Web 15 years before that.

We’re going to keep a weather eye on not just AI’s possible applications for products and user experiences, but also for the practice of product management. We expect AI tools will help product managers analyze data and text, define personas, draft specifications, sketch prototypes. Developing facility in such tools and skills will be essential for product managers in 2024 and beyond.

However, we think it’s a mistake to assume that product managers can cede their work to intelligent artifices. In fact, decision-making, understanding and care for users, clear communications, inspirational vision, and motivation and empathy will remain in the hands of the humans.

2. The cross-functional product team will increasingly become a default way of working, with product methods and product sense absorbed by everyone.

Product management and product methods as a discipline practiced by individuals called product managers will continue, of course — but these skills or models will be increasingly distributed to all members of product teams or product-led organizations. So product thinking will be the responsibility of people with all sorts of training and jobs. The team itself, including developers, designers, analysts, and architects, will become the engine of product models. It won’t be just the product manager who asks, “Why are we doing this? Who is it for? What is its value? Is it working? How might it be improved?”

3. Product models and mindsets will grow most rapidly in companies and industries outside of tech.

This is a prediction that’s near to SDG’s heart, as many of our customers and partners are smart technologists working in businesses that we don’t think of as tech companies.

So much product content and advice seems targeted to people working in a digital-native business — that is, a business that started within the lifetimes of its own current employees, or at least since the rise of the Web. These businesses and their products have been incorporating digital product thinking and methods since their inception. In some ways, product is easy, or natural, for them.

But of course there are a vast number of “pre-digital” businesses that benefit from great software product practices. I think this is especially true outside of tech hub geographies like Silicon Valley, CA. Here in Minneapolis, MN, for example, we have a robust economy that’s home to major leaders in education, retail, agriculture, manufacturing, and finance, among other industries. We’re excited to see these companies build strong product management and related disciplines.

4. Product Managers are ready to shape the future.

Our biggest prediction: product managers are not ones to merely observe trends and follow the masses. No, product leaders are in a position to set trends in business and in culture. So if there’s something in product that you don’t see mentioned in the popular product blogs and podcasts, then make it happen. Products are how organizations put their missions into their markets, and product folks conjure reality out of nebulous ideas. In the words of Willy Wonka: “We are the music-makers, and we are the dreamers of dreams.”

On to the Garden,

Around the Garden

SVPG starts with the people — and with hope

Check it out: Product Predictions 2024 blog post and video. Marty Cagan, Silicon Valley Product Group

I like how Marty Cagan of the Silicon Valley Product Group positions his predictions. He recognizes that forecasting the future over a specific time period might be foolish, so — like any good product manager — he starts with the people, including Product Managers, Product Owners, Product Teams, Customers, and Leaders. And then he describes how he hopes these roles operate in 2024.

One of his predictions that we’ll watch closely: the future of the Product Owner role. Cagan (like many others) has for years has raised concerns about the rise in “Product Owner” as a distinct job title that might over-emphasize certifications and processes, to the detriment of effective teams. Cagan believes (or at least hopes) we’ll see that dynamic diminish in ‘24.

What I most like about Cagan’s forecasts: he is not just observing what will happen, but declaring what he wants to see happen. That’s a product leader’s approach.

Mind the Product shares insights from their speakers and friends

Check it out: What does 2024 hold for product managers?, Mind the Product

Venerable British product consortium Mind the Product asks a variety of product practitioners (“conference speakers and other friends”) to weigh in with their own insights and then writes its predictions accordingly. They’re pretty AI heavy in their prophecies, unsurprisingly. They’re also optimistic about product thinking skills and how teams will work together, especially regarding AI. I loved this quote from Emily Tate, Managing Director:

“The people who will come out on top will be the ones who don’t just use AI as a buzzword, but who use their product thinking skills to thoughtfully apply AI to problems where it makes sense”

Emily Tate, Managing Director, Mind the Product

They also share some smart ideas about the role of product management — though they frame these rather ominously as a call to “justify your existence.” Here’s another prediction I’ll tuck away and look at in 12 months:

“Adam Warburton thinks that the traditional roles within product teams will be expected to blend more seamlessly, particularly product management and design.”

Mind the Product

Userback foresees product-led growth

Userback is a SaaS platform for collecting user feedback and tracking bugs and issues. On their website’s blog they shared some smart predictions for product in 2024. While, like other product-watchers, they see big things for AI in 2024, I was particularly struck by their emphasis on Product-Led Growth (PLG) for teams and companies in the year ahead. (“Trend #1 in the future of product management: It’s PLG for me!”). As that trend continues, Userback expects we’ll see deeper relationships between product managers and senior executives, saying “It’s crucial for product managers to collaborate closely with the c-suite, particularly the executives responsible for setting product direction and budget.” I think that’s spot-on.

I also appreciated Userback’s reminder that AI could raise thorny questions of ethics and equity, and that product managers should be mindful of their responsibility to deliver products that are “safe, fair, and inclusive for all users. It’s a responsibility that comes with the territory and one that should not be taken lightly.“

A shortlist of other predictions — and AI’s summary

Here are a few other product-related predictions that Pollinator’s readers might want to review.

After reading all of these, I asked ChatGPT to consolidate them. I iteratively fed it the text of all these predictions (including my own), and then, through a few iterations, asked it to summarize them.

Here’s what Chat GPT produced.

My original prompt (lightly edited): Hi. I am going to give you text from several different articles. These articles all are on a similar subject: product management trends for 2024. Based on this text, please tell me what the top 5 trends in product management will be. OK?

ChatGPT: Certainly! Here are the top five condensed trends in product management for 2024:

  1. AI-Powered Transformation: The pervasive integration of artificial intelligence (AI) dominates product management, enabling data-driven decision-making, automation, and personalized user experiences.

  2. Strategic AI Adoption: A thoughtful approach to AI implementation, distinguishing between 'vanity AI' and 'value-adding AI,' ensures strategic and meaningful integration into product management processes.

  3. Fundamental Focus: Recognition of the enduring importance of product management fundamentals, with a spotlight on collaboration and workflow optimization using new tools and technologies.

  4. Impactful Product Management: Shifting from output to outcomes and impact, product managers are expected to deliver tangible results for businesses by understanding and articulating the impact they seek.

  5. Existential Debate and Role Evolution: Ongoing debates on the existence of the product manager role, accompanied by a potential evolution in responsibilities and tasks distributed among various roles within organizations.

Not too shabby, ChatGPT. Not too shabby at all.

Outside the Box

Drive and Listen is an interesting diversion: it includes video of car rides, shot from the driver’s point-of-view, accompanied by audio feeds from local radio stations from cities around the world. So basically, you can see what it might be like to drive through Stockholm or Beijing or Buenos Aires while listening to popular local radio from that city. Check it out at https://drivenlisten.com.

About The Pollinator

  • The Pollinator is a free publication from the Product practice at Solution Design Group (SDG). Each issue is a curated digest of noteworthy content and articles from across the internet’s vast product community.

  • Solution Design Group (SDG) is an employee-owned business and technology consulting company. From ideation to implementation, we help transform organizations through well-made and well-loved digital products. Utilizing our customer-centric approach, and our wide array of capabilities, we deliver innovative solutions that drive business growth and success for our customers.

  • The Pollinator's editor is Jason Scherschligt, SDG's Head of Product. Please direct complaints, suggestions, and especially praise to Jason at [email protected].

  • Why The Pollinator? Jason often says that as he works with leaders and teams across companies and industries, he feels like a honeybee in a garden, spending time on one flower, moving to another, collecting experiences and insights, and distributing them like pollen, so an entire garden blooms. How lovely.

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